Manuscript Figures

Purpose

This page tracks the target figure set for the future SPECTRAX-GK paper. A figure is only ready for manuscript use when it has:

  • one owning script,

  • one reproducible artifact path,

  • a declared reference,

  • a declared acceptance status.

Current Readiness Snapshot

The current scoped manuscript stack is ready for claims about validated quasilinear diagnostics/model selection, nonlinear-window comparison gates, compact nonlinear startup-window finite-difference plumbing audits, mode-21 VMEC/Boozer geometry parity, reduced differentiable stellarator ITG optimization examples, and linear/quasilinear VMEC/Boozer AD-vs-finite- difference gradient gates on QH and Li383. The required release CI stack is the quick-shard, docs/packaging, mypy, repo-hygiene, fast-coverage, and wide-coverage matrix; treat the latest main run as the source of truth before tagging. The companion docs/_static/manuscript_readiness_status.json report currently has five active manuscript lanes closed and two lanes explicitly deferred: W7-X zonal recurrence/damping and TEM / kinetic-electron stellarator extension.

The broader plan is not fully closed. The current quasilinear figures are publication-ready as diagnostics, model-selection evidence, and explicit negative promotion gates, but they do not support a calibrated absolute-flux predictor. The stellarator optimization figures are publication-ready for reduced differentiable optimization/UQ plumbing and gradient validation, but not yet for production nonlinear heat-flux optimization. Those stronger claims require converged post-transient nonlinear heat-flux windows, VMEC/Boozer nonlinear turbulence-gradient or robust finite-difference gates, local-gradient conditioning, and nonlinear audits of optimized equilibria. W7-X zonal recurrence and TEM/kinetic-electron stellarator validation remain deferred from the current manuscript scope.

The latest manuscript-stack additions are deliberately contract-level figures: docs/_static/quasilinear_holdout_gap_report.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions states exactly why absolute-flux promotion remains blocked; docs/_static/stellarator_objective_portfolio_gate.png validates the aggregate reduced-objective reducer used before expensive VMEC/Boozer row production; and docs/_static/parallel_decomposition_status.png keeps independent-work parallelization claims separated from diagnostic nonlinear domain-partition metadata.

Current Vs Deferred Figure Inventory

Figure group

Current manuscript use

Deferred or blocked interpretation

Benchmark atlas and nonlinear windows

Release atlas, nonlinear window statistics, eigenfunction overlays, and gate index support the scoped linear/nonlinear validation narrative.

ETG nonlinear pilots, TEM/KAW stress lanes, extra W7-X flux tubes, and non-indexed figures are not promoted release parity claims.

Quasilinear diagnostics

Electrostatic spectra, shape gates, calibration provenance, negative simple-rule gates, and the spectral_envelope_ridge uncertainty panel support a model-selection result.

No runtime/TOML absolute-flux predictor, universal saturation law, or electromagnetic/KBM quasilinear calibration is promoted.

Autodiff and VMEC/Boozer gradients

Inverse/UQ demos, zero-beta equal-arc parity, solver-ready gradients, and mode-21 QH/Li383 linear, quasilinear, and reduced nonlinear-window estimator gates are in scope.

Compact nonlinear FD audits are startup plumbing checks only; production nonlinear transport gradients and optimized-equilibrium audits remain future gates.

Performance and parallelization

Runtime/memory figures, independent k_y scan scaling, quasilinear/UQ ensemble scaling, and nonlinear RHS profiler artifacts are release-facing engineering evidence.

Whole-state nonlinear sharding is identity/profiler evidence only, not a production nonlinear multi-GPU speedup claim.

W7-X zonal and TEM guardrails

Open-research and TEM-status panels are useful guardrails for the paper plan and release notes.

W7-X long-window zonal recurrence, W7-X experimental fluctuation-spectrum validation, W7-X TEM/kinetic-electron nonlinear windows, and broad multi-flux-tube stellarator validation are deferred.

Core Validation Figures

Figure

Owning script

Status

Notes

Linear benchmark master panel

tools/make_benchmark_atlas.py

Closed for the release atlas; paper-level extensions remain scoped

Cyclone ITG, ETG, KBM, W7-X, HSX, and shaped tokamak coverage are represented in docs/_static/benchmark_core_linear_atlas.png. TEM/kinetic-electron branch parity and additional W7-X multi-flux-tube scans remain outside the current release claim.

Eigenfunction validation panel

tools/plot_eigenfunction_overlap_summary.py, tools/plot_eigenfunction_reference_overlay.py, tools/generate_kbm_reference_overlay.py, and tools/generate_w7x_reference_overlay.py

Closed for KBM and W7-X raw overlays

first shipped overlap artifact is docs/_static/kbm_eigenfunction_overlap_summary.png; frozen raw GX bundles now exist for KBM and W7-X under docs/_static/reference_modes/. The closed KBM raw overlay is docs/_static/kbm_eigenfunction_reference_overlay_ky0p3000.png with overlap 0.999985 and relative L^2 mismatch 0.00721. The closed W7-X raw overlay is docs/_static/w7x_eigenfunction_reference_overlay_ky0p3000.png with overlap 0.9999999994 and relative L^2 mismatch 3.33e-5 against the finite GX t≈2 raw-mode bundle. Both overlay generators write JSON gate reports with overlap >= 0.95 and relative L^2 <= 0.25 requirements. tools/compare_gx_kbm.py --branch-summary-json writes branch-continuity gate metadata for selected KBM scans, and tools/generate_kbm_branch_gate_summary.py refreshes the no-rerun tracked artifact docs/_static/kbm_branch_gate_summary.json from docs/_static/kbm_gx_candidates.csv. The current continuity-first branch summary passes the strict adjacent growth/frequency jump and successive-overlap gates.

Nonlinear transport panel

tools/make_gx_summary_panel.py / tools/make_gx_publication_panel.py

Closed for release-window gates; stricter manuscript tightening remains open

Cyclone, Miller, KBM, W7-X, HSX with matched windows. Current component artifacts: docs/_static/nonlinear_cyclone_diag_compare_t400.png, docs/_static/nonlinear_cyclone_miller_diag_compare_t122.png, docs/_static/nonlinear_kbm_diag_compare_t400_stats.png, docs/_static/nonlinear_w7x_diag_compare_t200.png, docs/_static/hsx_nonlinear_compare_t50_true.png. tools/compare_gx_nonlinear_diagnostics.py --summary-json writes machine-readable mean-relative-mismatch gates for each plotted diagnostic with explicit transport-window bounds. The materialized release-window metadata are docs/_static/nonlinear_cyclone_gate_summary.json, docs/_static/nonlinear_cyclone_miller_gate_summary.json, docs/_static/nonlinear_kbm_gate_summary.json, docs/_static/nonlinear_hsx_gate_summary.json, and docs/_static/nonlinear_w7x_gate_summary.json; all pass the current release gate. This is sufficient for the release validation atlas. Paper-level tightening remains open where case-specific references support narrower tolerances, and the older short Cyclone t=5 diagnostic remains documented as an exploratory startup/resolved-spectrum audit, not a release gate.

W7-X exact-state convention audit

tools/run_exact_state_audit.py and tools/plot_w7x_exact_state_audit.py

Closed

current artifact base: docs/_static/w7x_exact_state_audit.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It compares W7-X nonlinear VMEC startup state, late geometry/field arrays, and re-evaluated scalar diagnostics directly against GX exact-state dumps. The maximum finite pointwise relative error is 4.62e-5 under the explicit 1e-4 convention gate, while scalar diagnostics are below 1.8e-7. This closes the geometry/diagnostic convention layer but does not close the separate W7-X zonal-response recurrence lane.

Windowed-statistics summary

tools/plot_nonlinear_window_statistics.py

Closed for current release-window gates

current artifact base: docs/_static/nonlinear_window_statistics.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It summarizes the per-diagnostic mean_rel_abs and max_rel_abs statistics from the frozen nonlinear GX comparison gate JSONs for Cyclone, Cyclone Miller, KBM, W7-X, and HSX. Exploratory/short-run diagnostics are explicitly excluded with gate_index_include=false.

Nonlinear startup-window finite-difference audit

tools/build_nonlinear_window_fd_audit.py

Closed only as compact startup plumbing; transport-average and gradient promotion open

current artifact base: docs/_static/nonlinear_window_fd_audit.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It runs actual compact SPECTRAX-GK nonlinear Cyclone startup windows at R/LTi = base +/- step plus a repeated base point, then checks finite outputs, repeatability, monotonic drive response, startup-window coefficient of variation, startup-window trend, and resolved central finite-difference response. The tracked response/base fraction is about 0.111. Its transport_average_gate is false because the run is too short for a post-transient running average; it is not a production nonlinear heat-flux, VMEC/Boozer nonlinear state-gradient, or optimized-equilibrium transport claim.

VMEC/Boozer nonlinear startup finite-difference audit

tools/build_vmec_boozer_nonlinear_window_fd_audit.py

Closed only as VMEC/Boozer geometry-perturbed startup plumbing; transport-average and local-gradient promotion open

current artifact base: docs/_static/vmec_boozer_nonlinear_window_fd_audit.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It starts from the real mode-21 vmec_jax -> booz_xform_jax QH state bridge, writes perturbed sampled geometries to temporary NetCDF files, and runs compact nonlinear startup windows at Rcos_mid_surface_m1 = base +/- 1e-5 plus a repeated base point. The gate checks finite outputs, deterministic repeatability, bounded startup-window coefficient of variation and trend, resolved geometry perturbation, and resolved central finite-difference response; response/base is about 0.040. Its transport_average_gate is false and the forward/backward response is asymmetric, so this is a startup observable-path audit rather than a promoted transport average, local nonlinear gradient, or optimized-equilibrium transport claim.

Nonlinear transport time-horizon audit

tools/build_nonlinear_transport_horizon_audit.py

Closed as claim-scope guardrail; QH/CTH convergence promotion open

current artifact base: docs/_static/nonlinear_transport_time_horizon_audit.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It audits the actual simulated time and claim scope for release nonlinear gates, startup finite-difference audits, reduced nonlinear-window estimators, and external-VMEC feasibility pilots. The new QH reduced-grid nonlinear pilot is extended from the earlier startup-scale t=20 trace to t=150 and reaches a meaningful late heat-flux window with mean about 19.6; it remains a feasibility result until a grid/window convergence gate passes. This panel prevents startup 1e-11-scale heat fluxes or reduced-envelope outputs from being described as post-transient nonlinear transport averages.

Validation gate index

tools/make_validation_gate_index.py

Closed for currently tracked gates

current artifact base: docs/_static/validation_gate_index.png and docs/_static/validation_gate_index.json. This is not a physics result by itself; it is the audit panel for release-window gates, currently 16/16 passed.

Open research lane status

tools/build_open_research_lane_status.py

Closed as a claim-scope audit; underlying physics lanes remain scoped

current artifact base: docs/_static/open_research_lane_status.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It reads the W7-X zonal recurrence, W7-X hypercollision probe, W7-X fluctuation/TEM extension status, quasilinear holdout, differentiable-geometry, and nonlinear-profiler artifacts and records which lanes are closed, partial, open, or blocked. The current status is intentionally conservative: nonlinear holdouts for the scoped quasilinear model-development claim and profiler-backed nonlinear hot-path localization are closed; W7-X fluctuation/TEM and differentiable geometry are partial bounded diagnostics; and W7-X long-window zonal recurrence/damping remains open. This panel is useful for the paper plan and release notes because it prevents partial diagnostics from being described as completed physics claims.

Manuscript-readiness status panel

tools/build_manuscript_readiness_status.py

Current manuscript scope with W7-X zonal and TEM deferred

current artifact base: docs/_static/manuscript_readiness_status.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It records the narrower manuscript scope where W7-X zonal recurrence and TEM/kinetic-electron extensions are deferred. In that scope, quasilinear diagnostics and saturation-model selection are closed as a validated negative/model-selection result rather than as an absolute-flux predictor; VMEC/Boozer zero-beta equal-arc geometry parity is closed at mboz=nboz=21; reduced differentiable stellarator ITG optimization is closed with AD/FD gates; and production solver-objective geometry gradients are closed for solver-ready arrays plus mode-21 VMEC/Boozer eigenfrequency, quasilinear heat-flux-weight, and reduced nonlinear-window estimator gates on QH and Li383. The compact nonlinear FD audits are retained only as startup plumbing checks with false transport-average gates. The production nonlinear optimization guard adds the D-shaped and circular long post-transient replicated holdout ensembles plus the selected optimized-equilibrium t=[350,700] seed/timestep replicated audit. Broader nonlinear turbulence-gradient, absolute-flux prediction, and multi-surface stellarator optimization claims remain separate gates.

Quasilinear spectrum panel

tools/plot_quasilinear_spectrum.py

Electrostatic diagnostic closed; absolute-flux prediction not promoted

current artifact bases: docs/_static/quasilinear_cyclone_spectrum.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_cyclone_miller_spectrum.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_hsx_spectrum.png, and docs/_static/quasilinear_w7x_spectrum.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. They show electrostatic linear weights and explicitly uncalibrated mixing-length outputs from examples/linear/axisymmetric/runtime_cyclone_quasilinear.toml, examples/linear/axisymmetric/runtime_cyclone_miller_quasilinear.toml, examples/linear/non-axisymmetric/runtime_hsx_linear_quasilinear.toml, and examples/linear/non-axisymmetric/runtime_w7x_linear_quasilinear_vmec.toml. Scan spectra use requested ky for the x-axis and retain signed selected-mode coordinates as mode_ky when applicable. W7-X was generated from an external VMEC benchmark file via W7X_VMEC_FILE; the equilibrium itself is not shipped. Absolute saturated-flux claims remain open until a held-out nonlinear calibration report passes.

Quasilinear calibration audit

tools/build_quasilinear_calibration_report.py and tools/plot_quasilinear_calibration.py

Initial train/holdout artifact closed as a failed model-transfer gate

current artifact bases: docs/_static/quasilinear_cyclone_calibration_audit.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_cyclone_miller_calibration_audit.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_cyclone_miller_train_holdout.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_hsx_train_holdout.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_w7x_train_holdout.png, the manuscript-facing combined panel docs/_static/quasilinear_stellarator_train_holdout.png, and the input-provenance audit docs/_static/quasilinear_validated_calibration_inputs.png with JSON/PDF companions. The current one-constant train/holdout report fits the heat-flux scale on Cyclone and the external-VMEC ITERModel case, then scores six held-out windows: Cyclone Miller, HSX, W7-X, D-shaped external VMEC, up-down asymmetric external VMEC, and circular external VMEC. It intentionally remains calibration_dataset with passed = false because held-out errors exceed the 0.35 gate; the current holdout mean relative error is about 2.11. HSX, W7-X, and the up-down asymmetric VMEC point are useful negative stellarator/tokamak transfer checks because the simple positive-growth mixing-length family predicts little or near-zero flux while the nonlinear windows are finite. The D-shaped external-VMEC point is a converged negative transfer constraint with finite late-window nonlinear heat flux but a grossly overpredicted Cyclone/ITERModel-scaled mixing-length estimate. The newly admitted circular external-VMEC point is a positive transfer check for the scaled one-constant diagnostic, but it does not rescue the aggregate absolute-flux gate. The input audit confirms that every current train/holdout nonlinear artifact maps to a passed nonlinear gate, while failed QH and CTH-like external-VMEC feasibility pilots remain excluded. This closes the NetCDF/CSV calibration machinery and provenance gate but not a calibrated absolute-flux claim.

Quasilinear saturation-rule sweep

tools/plot_quasilinear_saturation_rule_sweep.py

Initial model-development diagnostic closed as a negative result

current artifact base: docs/_static/quasilinear_saturation_rule_sweep.png with JSON/PDF companions. It fits one scalar on the two training cases, Cyclone and external-VMEC ITERModel, then scores the same six held-out windows for three simple rules: positive-growth mixing length, raw linear heat-flux weight, and an absolute-growth diagnostic. All three fail the held-out absolute-flux gate. The least-bad simple rule is now positive-growth mixing length with holdout mean relative error about 2.11; raw linear weight is about 2.68 and the absolute-growth diagnostic is about 3.32. The panel also includes a training-mean null baseline with holdout mean relative error about 1.20. Its JSON promotion_gate has no accepted rules, so future calibrated rules must beat both the quasilinear baselines and this null baseline before being promoted. This supports the next saturation-model lane while preventing premature absolute quasilinear transport claims.

Shape-aware quasilinear saturation diagnostic

tools/plot_quasilinear_shape_aware_saturation.py

Initial leave-one-geometry-out diagnostic closed as a negative result

current artifact base: docs/_static/quasilinear_shape_aware_saturation.png with JSON/PDF companions. It fits a shared nonlinear/quasilinear spectrum-shape exponent with per-case intercepts, uses only passed shape gates for the exponent fit, then fits the absolute heat-flux scale on training cases and scores each held-out geometry. The shape-aware model gives mean absolute relative error about 0.664 versus 0.624 for the linear-weight baseline and 0.170 for a deliberately simple training-mean null baseline. The JSON promotion_gate is false because the model fails the 0.35 transport gate and does not beat the null baseline on the current four-case dataset. This is retained as a manuscript-facing negative result because it rules out a too-simple one-exponent envelope before stellarator optimization claims.

Quasilinear candidate uncertainty gate

tools/plot_quasilinear_candidate_uncertainty.py

Eight-case uncertainty-aware candidate gate closed as a scoped model-selection result

current artifact base: docs/_static/quasilinear_candidate_uncertainty.png with JSON/PDF companions. It adds training-residual 95% prediction intervals to leave-one-geometry-out candidate scoring on the current eight-case electrostatic-compatible dataset. The legacy calibrated linear-weight and one-exponent shape-power-law candidates remain rejected relative to the null/skill gates. The accepted research candidate is spectral_envelope_ridge: it uses the positive-growth k_y centroid and heat-flux-weighted k_y width in a three-parameter log-linear ridge model, reaches leave-one-geometry-out mean relative error about 0.295, and has interval coverage 7/8. This is a bounded model-development result, not a runtime/TOML absolute-flux predictor or a universal saturation law.

Quasilinear dataset-sufficiency gate

tools/plot_quasilinear_dataset_sufficiency.py

Promotion guard closed for the scoped spectral-envelope candidate; higher-parameter and electromagnetic claims remain blocked

current artifact base: docs/_static/quasilinear_dataset_sufficiency.png with JSON/PDF companions. It audits the validated nonlinear windows before any richer saturation model is promoted. The current electrostatic-compatible set has eight cases, two explicit training geometries, and six held-out geometries. That is sufficient for the one-parameter linear-weight candidate, the two-parameter shape-power-law candidate, and the three-parameter spectral_envelope_ridge candidate, but not for the five-parameter linear_state_ridge model. KBM is explicitly excluded from this electrostatic quasilinear promotion lane because electromagnetic field-channel normalization and calibration remain future work. The gate therefore supports the scoped spectral-envelope model-selection claim while preventing broader absolute-flux or electromagnetic quasilinear claims.

Quasilinear model-selection status

tools/plot_quasilinear_model_selection_status.py and spectraxgk.quasilinear_model_selection

Scoped model-selection lane closed; absolute-flux runtime promotion remains blocked

current artifact base: docs/_static/quasilinear_model_selection_status.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It consolidates the dataset-sufficiency gate, uncertainty/skill gate, and tracked train/holdout calibration reports into one claim-boundary panel. The accepted spectral_envelope_ridge candidate reaches leave-one-geometry-out mean relative error about 0.295 with prediction-interval coverage 7/8 and beats both the training-mean null and linear-weight baselines. The same artifact also verifies that no tracked train/holdout report is promoted to calibrated_absolute_flux. This is the manuscript-facing positive result for reduced candidate selection, not a runtime/TOML absolute-flux predictor.

Quasilinear holdout-gap report

tools/build_quasilinear_holdout_gap_report.py

Absolute-flux promotion boundary quantified; next nonlinear holdout requirements explicit

current artifact base: docs/_static/quasilinear_holdout_gap_report.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It keeps absolute_flux_promoted=false and now records an absolute_flux_promotion_requirements block. The current absolute train/holdout error is about 2.11 against the 0.35 gate, i.e. about 6.04 times too large, with Cyclone Miller as the worst admitted holdout. The same block requires three additional independent passed holdouts, one additional external-VMEC holdout family, and one non-axisymmetric external-VMEC holdout family before absolute-flux promotion can even be reconsidered. The required nonlinear cases list points to the current near-miss and missing-family candidates while explicitly stating that adding those cases is evidence expansion only, not automatic promotion.

External-VMEC next-holdout runbook

tools/build_external_vmec_holdout_runbook.py and spectraxgk.external_holdout_plan

Launch-plan artifact closed; unchanged same-family and failed-family replays blocked

current artifact base: docs/_static/external_vmec_next_holdout_runbook.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. It converts the holdout-gap report and external-VMEC linear screen into a fail-closed nonlinear launch plan. After the circular external-VMEC case closed at t=450 and entered the holdout set, the shaped-tokamak pressure candidate was run to t=450 at n48/n64 but failed the high-grid convergence gate with common and least-window relative heat-flux differences about 0.306. The follow-on ITERModel_reference_nc same-family audit passes at t=450 with common/least grid differences about 0.056/0.055, but it is scoped as reproducibility evidence because ITERModel is already consumed by the training reference. The refreshed linear screen adds li383 as stable, QI_stel_seed_3127 as near-marginal with gamma≈3.8e-3, and basic_non_stellsym as a VMEC flux-tube contract failure. The runbook now emits no unchanged replay command for those cases and also requires gamma >= 0.02 before any nonlinear launch command. This records the fail-closed admission requirements: split=holdout, sufficiently unstable linear branch, passed grid/window convergence, post-transient transport window, and independence from the training reference. This is a planning artifact only; it does not promote an absolute-flux predictor.

Quasilinear promotion guardrail audit

tools/check_quasilinear_promotion_guardrails.py

Fast metadata gate closed; nonlinear simulation validation remains delegated to the source gates

current artifact: docs/_static/quasilinear_promotion_guardrails.json. It scans the train/holdout calibration reports, saturation-model reports, nonlinear input-validation blocks, promotion gates, claim-scope README/docs wording, the quasilinear row in docs/_static/manuscript_readiness_status.json, and the manuscript quasilinear model-development figure index. It requires finite nonlinear window means and standard deviations for train/holdout calibration points, explicit nonlinear and quasilinear artifact provenance, JSON sidecars for the tracked model-development figures, scoped non-absolute claim levels, explicit failed-baseline or blocker metadata, passed held-out gates before any calibrated_absolute_flux claim, and a manuscript-readiness quasilinear lane that remains scoped as diagnostic/model-selection evidence rather than a runtime absolute-flux predictor. This is deliberately a wording and metadata guard, not a calibrated absolute-flux claim or a replacement for nonlinear convergence simulations.

Release claim-scope ledger

docs/release_scope.rst

Closed as documentation guardrail

This documentation page centralizes the current claim boundaries across validation, quasilinear model selection, differentiable geometry, parallelization, performance, and deferred W7-X/TEM lanes. It should be updated whenever a new artifact promotes or demotes a claim.

VMEC equilibrium portfolio for future quasilinear holdouts

tools/plot_vmec_jax_equilibrium_inventory.py

Planning artifact closed; bounded linear smoke checks started; transport validation open

current artifact bases: docs/_static/vmec_jax_equilibrium_inventory.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_candidate_linear_screen.csv, docs/_static/quasilinear_vmec_qi_seed_linear_spectrum.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_vmec_qi_seed_branch_refinement_gate.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_vmec_dshape_linear_spectrum.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_dshape_grid_convergence_gate.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_dshape_t250_high_grid_convergence_gate.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_dshape_replicates/dshape_replicate_t250_ensemble_gate.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_circular_replicates/circular_replicate_t700_ensemble_gate.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_vmec_jax_qh_linear_spectrum.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_vmec_jax_cth_like_linear_spectrum.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_qh_nonlinear_t150_pilot.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_qh_nonlinear_t150_n48_pilot.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_qh_nonlinear_t150_n64_pilot.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_qh_grid_convergence_gate.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_qh_high_grid_convergence_gate.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_cth_like_nonlinear_t150_pilot.png, docs/_static/external_vmec_cth_like_nonlinear_t150_n48_pilot.png, and docs/_static/external_vmec_cth_like_grid_convergence_gate.png with JSON/PDF companions. The inventory scans external VMEC files from vmec_jax/examples/data without checking them into SPECTRAX-GK and now records 11 equilibria, including the newly detected wout_QI_stel_seed_3127.nc. A broader five-point candidate screen selected DSHAPE as the strongest finite unstable branch with gamma≈0.096 at ky≈0.476. The refreshed local portfolio records li383 as stable, QI seed as near-marginal rather than launchable, and basic non-stellarator-symmetric geometry as a flux-tube contract failure; the QI branch-refinement gate passes finite/positive-run/Krylov-consistency subgates but fails nonlinear-launch growth because max(gamma)≈3.8e-3 < 0.02. DSHAPE passes low-to-mid-grid convergence at t=150 and passes the 48x48x32 to 64x64x40 high-grid gate after extension to t=250: common-window and least-window symmetric relative differences are about 0.139 and 0.108, below the 0.15 threshold. The follow-up 64x64x40 DSHAPE seed/timestep replicate campaign passes the late-window ensemble gate on t=[170,250] with mean-relative spread 0.141 and combined SEM/mean 0.054. The independent circular external-VMEC holdout also has replicated evidence after extending from a non-promotable t=450 terminal-window drift to a closed t=700 window: docs/_static/external_vmec_circular_replicates/circular_replicate_t700_ensemble_gate.png passes with mean-relative spread 0.035 and combined SEM/mean 0.043 on t=[350,700]. QH and CTH-like remain useful feasibility and negative convergence results rather than transport validation claims: QH fails both 32->48 and 48->64 gates, and CTH-like fails its first grid check. DSHAPE and circular tokamak are ready for calibration-report admission with replicated nonlinear-window uncertainty evidence; QH and CTH-like should stay excluded until production-resolution convergence gates pass.

Quasilinear spectrum-shape gate

tools/plot_quasilinear_spectrum_shape_gate.py

HSX, W7-X, and Cyclone Miller gates closed; Cyclone retained as a failed model gate

current artifact bases: docs/_static/quasilinear_hsx_spectrum_shape_gate.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_w7x_spectrum_shape_gate.png, docs/_static/quasilinear_cyclone_miller_spectrum_shape_gate.png, and docs/_static/quasilinear_cyclone_spectrum_shape_gate.png with JSON/PDF companions. They compare normalized linear heat-flux-weight spectra against normalized nonlinear resolved HeatFlux_kyst spectra. HSX passes with TV≈0.112 and cosine ≈0.971; W7-X passes with TV≈0.056 and cosine ≈0.992; Cyclone Miller passes with TV≈0.094 and cosine ≈0.983; Cyclone is kept as a failed gate with TV≈0.215 and cosine ≈0.896. This supports spectrum-shape diagnostics while identifying a real saturation/window/model limitation before absolute saturated-flux claims. KBM is deferred from this gate because the current quasilinear diagnostic validates electrostatic channels only and the KBM lane is electromagnetic.

Zonal-flow / GAM response panel

tools/plot_zonal_flow_response.py, tools/plot_zonal_flow_response_from_output.py, tools/generate_miller_zonal_response_pilot.py, tools/generate_w7x_zonal_response_panel.py, tools/digitize_w7x_zonal_reference.py, tools/compare_w7x_zonal_reference.py, tools/plot_w7x_zonal_contract_audit.py, tools/plot_w7x_zonal_moment_tail_audit.py, tools/plot_w7x_zonal_closure_ladder.py, tools/plot_w7x_zonal_state_convention_audit.py, and tools/plot_w7x_zonal_recurrence_sweep.py

Open

should combine shaped-tokamak Rosenbluth-Hinton-style residuals with W7-X residual/damping envelopes using one figure convention; use signed Phi_zonal_mode_kxt or case-specific signed line averages for publication claims and keep Phi2_zonal_t only as an intermediate cross-check. The current Merlo Case-III artifact is docs/_static/miller_zonal_response_pilot.png from the initial-density setup at Nz=32, Nl=4, Nm=24, dt=0.005, and t≈60. With Rosenbluth-Hinton first-sample normalization it gives residual≈0.192 against the Merlo et al. Figs. 12/16 read-off of about 0.19; a literature-faithful common fit window t≈30 with separate positive/negative-extrema damping fits gives γ_GAM R0 / v_i≈-0.176 against the paper-scale read-off near -0.17; and Hilbert-phase frequency extraction on that same window gives ω_GAM R0 / v_i≈2.20 against the paper-scale read-off near 2.24. A higher-moment audit lowers the recurrence ratio but over-damps the GAM, while weak hypercollision scans are effectively inert, so the frozen Merlo artifact remains on the current Nm=24 baseline. The W7-X side now uses the potential initializer, signed line-average observable, paper-facing line-first normalization, and no hidden time-axis scaling. The tracked long-window W7-X artifact is docs/_static/w7x_zonal_response_panel.png with replayable traces in docs/_static/w7x_zonal_response_panel.traces.csv; it reaches the digitized Fig. 11 windows, but docs/_static/w7x_zonal_reference_compare.json remains open because residuals fail at k_x rho_i=0.07, 0.10, and 0.30 and the late envelopes are much larger than the digitized stella/GENE traces. docs/_static/w7x_zonal_contract_audit.png is now the paper-facing diagnostic panel for that open mismatch and is intentionally excluded from the release gate index. docs/_static/w7x_zonal_state_convention_audit.png closes the paper-facing state convention layer: the recovered Gaussian potential has relative L2 error 1.85e-6, off-target spectral content is zero to reported precision, and the diagnostic helpers agree with manual line/volume reductions near 2e-16. docs/_static/w7x_zonal_moment_tail_audit.png, docs/_static/w7x_zonal_closure_ladder_kx070.png, docs/_static/w7x_zonal_recurrence_sweep_kx070.png, and docs/_static/w7x_zonal_hypercollision_probe_kx070.png are companion open diagnostics; together they support a recurrence / moment-closure hypothesis and show that weak or constant closure can reduce velocity-space tails without closing the paper trace. The refreshed closure ladder now covers constant Hermite, k_z-weighted Hermite, mixed Laguerre-Hermite, Laguerre-only, and isotropic hypercollision families at 0.01 and 0.03. The best mean trace error is the isotropic nu_hyper=0.01 row at about 0.2755 versus baseline 0.2861, but its late-window standard-deviation ratio is about 4.25 versus baseline 4.10. Thus no bounded closure family improves trace error, late-envelope recurrence, and moment-tail metrics simultaneously. The W7-X generator exposes explicit hypercollision and Gaussian-width audit overrides so future closure probes are reproducible from the tracked tool. A newer high-moment four-wavelength audit under tools_out/zonal_response/w7x_publication_nl16_nm64_dt005_t100 verifies finite signed traces to t≈100 after restart-continuation fixes. The tracked W7-X TOML keeps gaussian_width=1 because the benchmark source writes the initializer as exp[-(z-z0)^2]; wider profiles and non-unit time scales are retained only as audits. The lane remains open pending a more physical W7-X damping/closure and velocity-space recurrence fix under the paper-facing convention.

W7-X fluctuation-spectrum panel

tools/plot_w7x_fluctuation_spectrum_panel.py and tools/build_w7x_tem_extension_status.py

Initial simulation-spectrum diagnostic closed; TEM/multi-flux validation open

current artifact bases: docs/_static/w7x_fluctuation_spectrum_panel.png, docs/_static/tem_branch_parity_audit.png, and docs/_static/w7x_tem_extension_status.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. The fluctuation panel is regenerated from the gated W7-X nonlinear t≈200 NetCDF artifact, requires the corresponding nonlinear gate summary to pass before plotting, and records gate_index_include=false because it is a diagnostic figure rather than an additional release gate. It shows normalized k_y spectra for |\phi|^2, W_\phi, and |Q_i|, the time-averaged k_x-k_y fluctuation-power map, the signed heat-flux spectrum, and a windowed temporal spectrum for the dominant nonzonal and zonal traces. The TEM audit explicitly keeps TEM linear parity open: maximum absolute relative growth-rate mismatch is about 4.25, maximum absolute relative frequency mismatch is about 3.3 away from the near-zero reference denominator, and the frequency branch has Spearman coefficient about -0.986. Because the TEM reference is a provisional literature digitization rather than a direct case dump, this artifact blocks broad W7-X/TEM validation claims without being a standalone tuning target. The extension-status panel also keeps W7-X multi-alpha/multi-surface scans and kinetic-electron nonlinear windows open. This closes the reproducible simulation-spectrum panel needed for the current manuscript stack but not broad W7-X/TEM validation.

Velocity-space convergence panel

tools/generate_observed_order_gate.py plus dedicated full convergence refresh script to add

Open

should follow GX-style convergence evidence and write an observed-order gate report through spectraxgk.benchmarking.observed_order_gate_report so convergence rate and final-grid error are tracked explicitly. The current atlas summary already records a machine-readable high-vs-low Cyclone grid convergence gate for the tracked convergence tile. The CSV-backed Cyclone velocity-space artifact is docs/_static/cyclone_resolution_observed_order.png with metadata in docs/_static/cyclone_resolution_observed_order.json; the current office/GPU ky=0.30 sweep passes the strict pairwise-order and final-error gate.

Stellarator validation panel

dedicated script to add

Open

W7-X multi-flux-tube + zonal-flow response + HSX summary as needed; add heavy-electron EM verification before realistic-electron EM claims

Performance panel

existing performance tooling

Closed for release-level scoped claims

current artifact bases: docs/_static/runtime_memory_benchmark.png, docs/_static/nonlinear_rhs_profile_miller.png, docs/_static/nonlinear_rhs_profile_stellarator_runtime.png, docs/_static/full_nonlinear_rhs_trace_summary.json, docs/_static/full_nonlinear_rhs_trace_gpu_summary.json, and docs/_static/nonlinear_sharding_profile_office_gpu.json. The release claim is limited to current cold/warm runtime accounting, CPU/GPU nonlinear RHS hot-path localization, W7-X/HSX runtime-mode stellarator smoke profiles, and numerical-identity gates. It is not a production nonlinear domain-decomposition speedup claim.

Parallelization identity gate

tools/generate_parallel_ky_scan_gate.py

Closed for independent Cyclone k_y batching

current artifact base: docs/_static/parallel_ky_scan_gate.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions. This is a real linear-solver gate: it compares serial and fixed-shape k_y-batched Cyclone scans, requires numerical identity for gamma and omega, and reports batch speedup separately from the acceptance criterion.

Differentiable-Physics Figures

Figure

Owning script

Status

Notes

Sensitivity-analysis figure

examples/theory_and_demos/quasilinear_implicit_sensitivity.py

Initial quasilinear eigenbranch gate closed

current artifact base: docs/_static/quasilinear_implicit_sensitivity.png with JSON/PDF companions. It differentiates a tiny Cyclone linear-RHS quasilinear objective [gamma, omega, kperp_eff^2, Qhat_i, Q_i^ML] with respect to [R/Ln, R/LTi] using the implicit left/right eigenpair system and checks the result against nearest-branch central finite differences. This is a differentiability/conditioning gate, not an absolute nonlinear-flux validation.

Solver-objective geometry-gradient gate

tools/build_solver_objective_gradient_gate.py, tools/build_vmec_boozer_solver_frequency_gradient_gate.py, tools/build_vmec_boozer_quasilinear_gradient_gate.py, tools/build_vmec_boozer_nonlinear_window_gradient_gate.py, tools/build_vmec_boozer_gradient_holdout_matrix.py, tools/build_vmec_boozer_multi_point_objective_gate.py, tools/build_vmec_boozer_aggregate_line_search_comparison.py, tools/build_vmec_boozer_aggregate_alpha_holdout_gate.py, tools/build_vmec_boozer_aggregate_surface_holdout_gate.py, tools/build_vmec_boozer_second_equilibrium_aggregate_gate.py, tools/check_vmec_boozer_aggregate_holdout_gate.py, tools/check_production_nonlinear_optimization_guard.py, tools/build_nonlinear_window_fd_audit.py, and tools/build_vmec_boozer_nonlinear_window_fd_audit.py

Solver-ready linear-RHS gradient gate closed; mode-21 VMEC/Boozer state-to-solver eigenfrequency, quasilinear heat-flux-weight, and reduced nonlinear-window estimator gates closed for QH plus Li383; compact and VMEC/Boozer-perturbed nonlinear startup FD audits closed only as plumbing checks; multi-alpha reduced aggregate objective plumbing passes; selected optimized-equilibrium post-transient transport-window audit closed; nonlinear turbulence-gradient promotion remains open

current artifact bases: docs/_static/solver_objective_gradient_gate.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_solver_frequency_gradient_gate.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_quasilinear_gradient_gate.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_nonlinear_window_gradient_gate.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_li383_nonlinear_window_gradient_gate.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_gradient_holdout_matrix.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_multi_point_objective_gate.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_aggregate_line_search_comparison.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_aggregate_alpha_holdout_gate.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_aggregate_surface_holdout_gate.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_second_equilibrium_aggregate_gate.png, docs/_static/vmec_boozer_aggregate_holdout_promotion_gate.json, docs/_static/production_nonlinear_optimization_guard.png, docs/_static/optimized_equilibrium_replicates/optimized_equilibrium_replicate_t700_ensemble_gate.png, docs/_static/nonlinear_window_fd_audit.png, and docs/_static/vmec_boozer_nonlinear_window_fd_audit.png with CSV/JSON/PDF companions where available. The first differentiates actual electrostatic linear-RHS eigenpair observables with respect to solver-ready geometry arrays using the implicit left/right eigenpair system and checks gamma, omega, <k_perp^2>, linear heat/particle-flux weights, and a mixing-length heat-flux proxy against nearest-branch central finite differences. The VMEC/Boozer frequency gate starts from a real vmec_jax state coefficient, maps through booz_xform_jax with mboz=nboz=21, builds the SPECTRAX-GK linear RHS, and verifies the eigenfrequency gradient. The VMEC/Boozer quasilinear gate uses a richer Nl=2, Nm=3 moment basis and checks gamma, omega, <k_perp^2>, Q_i weight, and gamma Q_i/kperp^2 against finite differences. The nonlinear-window estimator gates feed those observables into a smooth RK2 late-window envelope and check heat-flux mean, coefficient of variation, and normalized trend gradients. The multi-equilibrium matrix repeats the frequency, quasilinear, and estimator gates on the tracked QH and Li383 fixtures. The multi-alpha aggregate artifact shows reduced quasilinear objective sensitivity across two field lines and two k_y samples, while the growth-vs-quasilinear comparison shows that the two reduced objectives can select different VMEC coefficient directions. The alpha-heldout and surface-heldout splits pass reduced generalization checks, Li383 passes the second-equilibrium aggregate finite-difference plus line-search gate, and the production nonlinear optimization guard now includes D-shaped/circular replicated long-window holdouts plus the optimized-equilibrium t=[350,700] seed/timestep audit. The compact nonlinear FD audits run actual nonlinear windows and verify startup conditioning/response only; their transport-average gates are false because they do not discard a long transient or demonstrate running-mean convergence. A surface-stencil path is available for memory-bounded diagnostics; nonlinear turbulence-gradient and broader multi-surface optimization claims remain separate gates.

Inverse/UQ figure

examples/theory_and_demos/autodiff_inverse_growth.py, examples/theory_and_demos/autodiff_inverse_twomode.py, and tools/plot_stellarator_optimization_uq.py

Scoped inverse and UQ validation closed; global identifiability and production optimization claims remain scoped

current artifact bases: docs/_static/autodiff_inverse_growth.png, docs/_static/autodiff_inverse_twomode.png, and docs/_static/stellarator_itg_optimization_uq.png with JSON/PDF/CSV companions. The inverse examples check AD/finite-difference consistency and conditioning for one- and two-parameter reduced objectives, while the UQ panel reports local Gauss-Newton covariance, rank, and sensitivity-map diagnostics. These figures validate the differentiable workflow and uncertainty reporting, not global uniqueness or production nonlinear stellarator optimization.

Optimization figure

examples/optimization/compare_stellarator_itg_optimizations.py and tools/plot_stellarator_optimization_uq.py

Initial differentiable objective-reduction and weighted-residual UQ gates closed; full VMEC/Boozer/GK optimization open

current artifact bases: docs/_static/stellarator_itg_optimization_comparison.png and docs/_static/stellarator_itg_optimization_uq.png with JSON/PDF companions and individual objective panels docs/_static/stellarator_itg_growth_optimization.png, docs/_static/stellarator_itg_quasilinear_optimization.png, and docs/_static/stellarator_itg_nonlinear_optimization.png. The examples optimize a QA max-mode-1 control vector with A = 7 and iota = 0.41 constraints for growth-rate, quasilinear-flux, and nonlinear-window objectives. All three pass AD-vs-finite-difference gates and reduce the tracked ITG observables from the shared initial point. The UQ panel now computes covariance from the final weighted objective residual Jacobian, not from initial-to-final displacement, and shows derivative parity, control uncertainty, covariance projection, and rank/conditioning diagnostics. The geometry bridge now includes real vmec_jax metric-tensor derivatives, real non-axisymmetric VMEC field-line tensor derivatives through vmec_jax.geom plus vmec_jax.vmec_bcovar, a direct VMEC tensor-derived flux-tube derivative gate, a direct-VMEC-tensor vs imported-VMEC/EIK array-parity audit, a Boozer equal-arc core/metric parity audit, and a real vmec_jax VMECState to booz_xform_jax to SPECTRAX-GK derivative gate. This is a differentiable optimization and UQ gate, not a full production stellarator-transport optimization claim; the latter remains open pending finite-beta and broader production-runtime drift parity, production nonlinear turbulence-gradient or robust finite-difference audits, and converged nonlinear audits of optimized equilibria.

VMEC/Boozer parity matrix

tools/build_vmec_boozer_parity_matrix.py

Multi-equilibrium zero-beta equal-arc geometry gate closed at mboz=nboz=21

current artifact base: docs/_static/vmec_boozer_parity_matrix.png with JSON/CSV/PDF companions. It checks QH, QI, and shaped-tokamak fixtures against the imported VMEC/EIK runtime convention and rejects mboz,nboz < 21. The current limiting matrix row is QI drift at 7.13e-2 against the 8e-2 release tolerance; evaluated QI ntheta=8,16 variants pass, while input-only QI seeds without bundled wout references are explicitly artifact-limited. This should be presented as a field-line geometry convention gate, not as a finite-beta transport-gradient validation.

Caption Policy

Every manuscript-facing figure should answer these questions directly in the caption:

  1. what case and model are shown,

  2. what horizon or fit window is used,

  3. what the reference is,

  4. what agreement was expected,

  5. what agreement was found.

Open Issues Before Drafting

  • close the W7-X zonal-flow residual and late-envelope mismatch under the paper-facing line-first normalization; current time coverage is sufficient, but residuals fail at three wavelengths and late envelopes remain too large

  • either close the long-time recurrence follow-up for the shaped-tokamak Rosenbluth-Hinton / GAM response benchmark or explicitly scope publication claims to the benchmark-scale pre-recurrence metrics now frozen in the Merlo Case-III artifact

  • extend the W7-X fluctuation-spectrum diagnostic to a Doppler-reflectometry transfer-function comparison if experimental-facing claims enter the paper

  • extend eigenfunction-overlap metrics beyond the closed KBM and W7-X raw overlays where additional literature-backed mode-shape references are useful

  • tighten the current windowed nonlinear statistics panel with stricter case-specific gates where reference windows justify them

  • tie ETG nonlinear claims to the benchmark literature or keep them framed as a pilot

  • add or refine publication-ready zonal-flow closure figures before making W7-X recurrence claims

  • add an experimental transfer-function fluctuation-spectrum panel only if experimental-facing W7-X claims enter the paper